Impact-Based Forecasting of Pre- and Post-COVID-19 GDP Conditions in Pakistan: A Comparative Analysis

Muhammad  Zohaib; Imtiaz  Husain; Muhammad Adnan  Khursheed

doi:10.62019/przf4m53

Authors

Muhammad Zohaib Department of Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Sciences, SMIU, Karachi, Pakistan.
Imtiaz Husain Department of Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Sciences, SMIU, Karachi, Pakistan.
Muhammad Adnan Khursheed Department of Business Administration, SMIU, Karachi, Pakistan.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62019/przf4m53

Keywords:

Pakistan economy, GDP growth, COVID-19 impact, Sectoral analysis, Sustainable growth

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan’s economic trajectory by conducting a comparative analysis of GDP conditions before, during, and after the pandemic (FY2017–FY2024). Employing a multiple regression framework and sectoral segmentation based on Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) weights, the research examines the contributions of agriculture, industry, and services to overall GDP growth. Findings reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic caused Pakistan’s first economic contraction in seven decades (-0.5% in FY2020), disproportionately affecting the industrial and services sectors, while agriculture demonstrated relative resilience with 2% growth. Regression results (R² = 0.9998) indicate that the services sector remained the principal driver of GDP (β = 0.448, p < 0.001), followed by industry (β = 0.332) and agriculture (β = 0.175). Sector-specific analyses highlight volatility in textiles (-22.7% in 2020), recovery in IT services (18% in FY2021), and consistent contributions from livestock (3–6.5%). Despite stabilization at 4.7% GDP growth by FY2024, structural challenges—including inflation, energy dependency, and limited agricultural R&D investment—continue to hinder sustainable growth. The study underscores the need for sectoral rebalancing, diversification of industrial exports, climate-resilient agricultural practices, and digital transformation of services. By providing empirical evidence on Pakistan’s economic resilience and vulnerabilities, this research contributes to the broader discourse on pandemic economics in developing countries and offers policy-relevant insights for strengthening long-term economic sustainability.

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